The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens will meet this weekend in the AFC Divisional Round Playoffs. This is the second time these squads have met in the postseason, with the first one being a 17-3 Bills victory in the same round of the playoffs in 2020.
However, that meeting is less relevant than the one these two squads had earlier this season. In Week 4, Baltimore stomped Buffalo, winning 35-10 in dominating fashion. That loss was Buffalo’s first of this season, and it was the first time the Bills had lost a regular-season game by more than eight points since they dropped a 41-15 tilt with the Indianapolis Colts on November 21, 2021.
Even though the Bills and the Ravens met earlier this season, each team has undergone plenty of roster changes since they saw one other in October. Of course, most of the conversation around this game is going to center around MVP-front-running quarterbacks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, in either order — but of greater importance might be the players who are available for this matchup who weren’t last time, and vice-versa.
For the Bills, the team’s defense was a wreck the first time these squads met. Buffalo was down both starting linebackers, as Matt Milano had yet to return from Injured Reserve (IR) and Terrel Bernard was out with a pectoral injury. In their place, the Bills started Baylon Spector and Dorian Williams, and they also rotated veteran Nicholas Morrow into the game for Williams at times.
Buffalo was also without Taron Johnson, their Second-Team All-Pro nickel corner who fills the role as the team’s pseudo-third linebacker. Johnson missed the game with a forearm fracture. Cam Lewis started in his place. As if those injuries weren’t enough, starting safety Taylor Rapp left the game early in the second quarter with a concussion. He was replaced by rookie Cole Bishop in what was the latter’s first major professional action.
Of the players who missed that game for Buffalo, all are expected to be available for this weekend’s rematch. Milano returned from injured reserve in Week 13, and he finally looked like himself against the Denver Broncos on Sunday. He had five tackles and a sack. Bernard and Johnson are healthy. Among the players who filled in for them, two are not on the active roster any longer. Morrow was released on January 2 and remains a free agent, and Spector is on IR thanks to a calf injury. Williams and Bishop are playing special teams, and Lewis has settled in as the team’s dime back on defense while also playing special teams.
Buffalo also added reinforcements along the interior of the defensive line. In the first matchup, Buffalo used a four-man rotation at defensive tackle, with Ed Oliver (72%) and DaQuan Jones (63%) logging the vast majority of the defensive snaps. DeWayne Carter was third with just under half of the team’s snaps (46%). Buffalo added veteran defensive tackles Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson to the fold, and Carter, the team’s third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, has been a healthy scratch.
The Bills are different on offense, as well. While most of the personnel remains the same, the big change is veteran wideout Amari Cooper. In the first matchup, Keon Coleman led all of Buffalo’s receivers at 73% of the offensive snaps. Mack Hollins played 61% of the snaps, Khalil Shakir played 59% of the snaps, Marquez Valdes-Scantling appeared on 42% of the snaps, and Curtis Samuel logged 37% of the snaps.
In the first meeting, Shakir hurt his ankle during the Bills’ second possession. While he was able to return for the rest of the game, the injury did cause him to miss the following week’s contest — a 23-20 loss to the Houston Texans. Valdes-Scantling is off the roster, and Samuel looked much more like the man coverage-beater he was signed to be against Denver. Cooper hasn’t put up big statistics, but his presence opens things up for Buffalo’s other wideouts.
While the Bills were dealing with injury issues in the first matchup, it’s not as if the Ravens were in perfect form in October, either. They were without their monstrous nose tackle, Michael Pierce, who missed the game with a shoulder injury. The starting left guard at the time, Andrew Vorhees, was also out with an ankle injury. Rookie Roger Rosengarten started at right tackle, and right tackle Patrick Mekari moved to left guard. In place of Pierce, Baltimore went with Travis Jones.
Since that point, the Ravens have kept their offensive line as it was for that game, as Vorhees has been relegated to second-string duty. Pierce has also been playing reserve snaps, although he did make a highlight-reel play with an interception in the regular-season finale against the Cleveland Browns. Buffalo struggled to win either line of scrimmage in the first meeting, and Baltimore’s offensive and defensive lines have only improved since then.
On offense, one potentially huge issue looms for the Ravens. Wideout Zay Flowers, who made his first Pro Bowl this season (74 receptions, 1,059 receiving yards, four touchdowns), missed last week’s game after suffering a knee injury in the final week of the regular season. He had one catch for 10 yards on two targets in the first meeting. Tylan Wallace, a fourth-year player out of Oklahoma, started in his place last week and led all Baltimore wideouts in snaps.
Baltimore made a late-season addition to its defensive secondary, as well, adding a player with whom Bills fans will be quite familiar: cornerback Tre’Davious White. Buffalo’s 2017 first-round draft choice signed with the Los Angeles Rams this offseason after the Bills released him, and after struggling in LA, he was traded to Baltimore on November 5.
White has worked as a sub-package corner with the Ravens, and he has three pass breakups while allowing just five of 10 passes to be completed when he’s the closest man in coverage. Given the struggles Buffalo had on offense in October against a Baltimore defense that had yet to gel, it’s important to note that it isn’t going to be any easier this time around.
Former Bills return specialist Deonte Harty is currently on IR, as well, meaning that it’s possible that Steven Sims, whom the Ravens claimed off waivers in December, could be the return man this week. Harty was designated to return from IR last week, but he’s yet to be activated. Harty averaged 11 yards per punt return on his three tries in the first meeting between these two clubs.
There are likely some other changes that I’m missing, but one thing is clear: Both teams are different than they were early in the season.
Will that make for a different type of game on Sunday?